N406 - Unconventional Resource Assessment and Valuation

Course Overview
This course provides the strategies, tactics, and tools needed to effectively assess and value oil and gas resource plays. Probabilistic techniques and a staged approach are applied to make good decisions about which projects to invest in and how to wisely spend limited capital. This is critically important, given the risks and uncertainties inherent in these plays, as well their technical complexities and limited datasets.

This course is intended for geoscientists, engineers, commercial team members, business analysts, and managers charged with creating value from their unconventional resources.

Participants will learn to:
•	Use probability as a language for communicating uncertainty, including the use of log-probability plots to
        effectively display distributions.
•	Quantify the mean and variance of parameters such as in-place volumes, initial well rates, and ultimate recoveries.
•	Understand the key risks and uncertainties inherent in appraising and developing unconventional reservoirs.
•	Estimate the chances of geologic and economic success.
•	Understand the impact of aggregation, the use of confidence curves, and the utility of sequential aggregation 
        plots to assess project performance.
•	Grasp the elements of probabilistic production forecasting including the aggregation of production volumes 
        to the project level.
•	Understand the unique practices and pitfalls of estimating resources and reserves in unconventional	reservoirs.
•	Use decision trees and value-of-information exercises to make better decisions about what data to acquire.
•	Use limited datasets and imperfect information to better quantify the range of possible outcomes.
•	Apply a stage-gate process to maximize value by assuring focus on the right risks and uncertainties at each stage.

This course is offered by Nautilus (www.nautilusworld.com), a PEICE affiliated company and the world leader in Geosciences Training services.

A complete set of course materials and lunches are included.

All scheduled event(s) for this short course:
Date: TBA
Course Syllabus
Download course syllabus
Course Outline
  • Introduction
  • Work Processes and Deliverables in Unconventional Reservoirs
  • Probability, Distributions, and Dependencies
  • Estimating Under Uncertainty
  • Estimating In-Place Volumes
  • Determining Chance of Success
  • Aggregation Principles
  • Quantifying Production Forecast Uncertainty
  • Estimating Resources and Reserves in Unconventional Reservoirs
  • Decision Trees and the Value of Information
  • Making Better Decisions with Limited Data
  • Decision Stage Assessment
  • Utopia Shale Capstone Exercise

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Creties Jenkins, Mark McLane

Training Venue

To avoid potential course disruptions caused by the attendance of unconfirmed registrants, the training venue address will ONLY be provided to registrants upon receipt of payment (via an email confirmation note).